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Nixon Mak, Managing Director, Head of HK Pensions and Solutions Strategist, Asia Pacific at Invesco, shares his views on Hong Kong and global markets.

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Market Outlook - Monthly

August 2019 (covering July 2019)


  • The US equity market ended July in positive territory despite dipping lower after the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move widely anticipated in the market. 
  • Increased volatility due to uncertain policy outlook. Whilst longer-term corporate outlook remains promising, the impact of increased tariff on earnings have yet to be seen. 

Europe (including UK)

  • European equities were flat in July - gains were lost by the end of the month as a tweet from Trump reignited fears over the status of trade negotiations with Beijing and spooked investors.
  • We expect a continued, modest deceleration in the eurozone economy in the next few months. There are concerns that the next European Central Bank president — who will begin his or her term in November — may be more hawkish and accelerate a slowdown in the eurozone. 

Asia Pacific (ex Hong Kong ex China ex Japan)

  • Asian equities ended July lower as hopes of a positive outcome to US-China trade talks diminished and the expected rate cut by the Fed delivered no surprise to the market. Taiwan was the best performing market in the region over the month. The technology sector rallied and led the market higher. 
  • We believe a full resolution to the trade dispute remains low in the short to medium term and market volatility will likely linger and be largely driven by the news flows. We believe market volatility creates good buying opportunities, particularly for companies with solid fundamentals and whose valuation is unfairly discounted by broad sentiments. 

Hong Kong and Mainland China (H-shares)

  • Chinese equities fell in July, the initial optimism over the trade truce faded and investors were anxious with the slow progress of following discussions. A lack of conviction in supportive policies has also cooled down sentiments. In Hong Kong, protests towards the controversial extradition bill persisted and developed into a social movement, leading to the underperformance of the property and retail sector. 
  • We are positive towards themes such as migrating to online spending, premiumization and healthcare among others. We believe investors should take the volatility as good buying opportunities and continue to invest in China. 


  • Deteriorating global trade relations also impacted Japanese equities which ended July lower as optimism over an improvement in US-China relations waned. Mixed corporate earnings also weighed on investor sentiment as the ongoing trade war hit export-dependent firms. 
  • Monetary policy will likely remain loose, however, stronger yen from flight to safety is negatively impacting the market and economy. 

Fixed Income

  • July was another strong month for bonds, with yields falling in many markets. The key catalyst for this rally was once again expectations about central bank policy. Corporate bonds also benefitted from the expectation of easier monetary policy. At an index level, they outperformed government bonds with credit spreads tightening.
  • We favor corporates over government, with investors continuing to search for yields and better carry. 

Emerging Markets

  • Emerging equity markets edged lower during July with investor sentiment unsettled by concerns over global growth and uncertainties around a US-China trade deal. Asia was the weakest performing region, followed by the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region.
  • We believe that valuations in emerging equity markets are relatively attractive, trading at a discount to their peers in the developed world, with selective long-term stock picking opportunities remaining, particularly in Asia. 

2019 Investment Outlook : 15 asset classes

Each New Year brings the promise of a fresh start-but for investors, it’s important to understand the global dynamics that have brought us to this point. How do yesterday’s elections, monetary policy decisions and geopolitical developments affect tomorrow’s opportunities? Working with our investment teams from across the globe, we've developed this 2019 outlook to provide insights that can help you position your portfolio for the future.

2019 Outlook - Global Economy “Global economy expected to grow with low inflation in 2019”

Key takeaways

  • 2018 has been a year of turmoil, but, 2019 promises to be much calmer, in my view.
  • I believe the Federal Reserve should be successful in positioning the US economy for several more years of expansion.
  • Monetary policy invariably dominates fiscal policy in the determination of inflation.

2019 Outlook - Global Markets “Three themes to watch in 2019”

Key takeaways

  • We believe economic growth divergence is likely to continue to some extent.
  • Geopolitical disruption is leading to structural fragmentation.
  • The debt problem is widespread and is becoming more burden some as rates rise.


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